All Blacks v Argentina preview: Scott Robertson’s men to dominate Los Pumas despite New Zealand’s ‘obvious weaknesses’
Previous All Blacks head coach Ian Foster may have been much-maligned by those who were not involved in the set-up, but one thing they did do was assert their dominance over the rest of the southern hemisphere.
New Zealand have claimed the last four Rugby Championships, including during their annus horribilis of 2022. After a run of five defeats in six, Foster was one game away from being sacked, but a remarkable 35-23 triumph over South Africa changed the course of his tenure.
They would go on to secure the annual southern hemisphere tournament for the third year in a row before repeating the feat in 2023 and reaching the Rugby World Cup final.
Since then, the 59-year-old has been replaced by Scott Robertson, whose appointment was greeted in stark contrast to his predecessor.
That in itself has an placed extra burden on the shoulders of the hugely successful Robertson, who led the Crusaders to seven Super Rugby titles in as many years.
Under his stewardship, they have made a solid start, securing a tense 2-0 series victory over England before comfortably dispatching Fiji in San Diego, but the pressure never relents as All Blacks boss.
New Zealand are expected to win in dominant fashion against an Argentina team who themselves are under new management in the form of legendary playmaker Felipe Contepomi.
Los Pumas’ opening encounter with Contepomi at the helm was a disaster as they went down 28-13 to a second-string France, but they responded by gaining revenge on Les Bleus a week later and then hammering Uruguay.
A strong spine remains in the Argentine squad but they very much face an uphill battle against an All Blacks outfit that have had three decent workouts heading into the Rugby Championship.
Where the game will be won
A lot rests on the mentality of the visitors. Two years ago they created history in Christchurch, beating the All Blacks in New Zealand for the first time ever, but a week later they collapsed, knowing that they had achieved something incredible. They then faced each other in the Rugby World Cup semi-final and Los Pumas, who hadn’t been fancied to go far in the tournament, once again faltered having effectively overachieved in France.
Hopefully, with this match being the first of the campaign, they will not be quite so fragile and actually front-up against the hosts. That, quite simply, has to be the starting point before you go into any technical details about where they could challenge the All Blacks. If they are in the right frame of mind then they could cause problems at the contact area, in the lineout and on defence.
Those facets are all covered by their impressive loose trio, where Pablo Matera will be a threat at the breakdown, Juan Martin Gonzalez will compete in the air and Marcos Kremer will put in big shots on All Blacks carriers. Unfortunately, the rest of their pack doesn’t look quite so strong and, against an imposing scrummaging unit, they may well struggle in the front-row, very much like England did in July.
The Red Rose did manage to stay in the game despite their scrum deficiencies, but we’re not quite so sure Argentina will be able to do the same. With Beauden Barrett getting a start alongside Damian McKenzie and Anton Lienert-Brown potentially rectifying their midfield woes, they should have too much firepower in Wellington.
Last time they met
What they said
All Blacks fly-half McKenzie is expecting a difficult game against an Argentina side which contains quality both up front and behind the scrum.
“They’re a great side, a tough opponent in Argentina and a tough opponent when they travel as well. They’re a physical pack and they’ve got some great backs as well and they can really play some attacking rugby,” he said.
“They’re a team that if you let them get on top early, they’re a tough team to stop. For us, it’s about matching them physically and trying to exploit the areas where we can. We know it’s a massive challenge this week against a good side.
“We know that every time we come up against the Argentinians, they’re going to throw everything at us. They’re a passionate side. If you let them get on top early, they’re a tough team to stop so we’ll try to combat that.”
Argentina head coach Contepomi has been pleased with their preparation for the encounter but realises the task they will face in Wellington.
“There are many things to improve and we know that at the beginning of the Rugby Championship things are not going to go perfectly, but we will try to evaluate ourselves and try to improve game by game,” he said.
“We’ve had a very good week. The idea is to finish it in the best way with the match. Sometimes it is the most difficult but that is our challenge.
“At the same time, playing against New Zealand in their country is one of the biggest challenges that one has as a player and we are preparing to be ready for that.”
Players to watch
Robertson’s changes have been designed to rectify their attacking issues from the England Tests. The impact of Beauden Barrett in those games was obvious, so it is no surprise that the legendary playmaker starts in this clash. Elsewhere, Anton Lienert-Brown will also be expected to help them in that area after coming in for Rieko Ioane. Lienert-Brown has a better skill set than Ioane and the All Blacks will hope that he can open space for their dangerous runners.
Meanwhile, up front, a lot rests on the lineout partnership. In Sam Darry and Tupou Vaa’i they have a completely new combination, while their main jumping forward in the back-row, Samipeni Finau, has been dropped. Ardie Savea made a key steal against England but there are still doubts over his role in the lineout. Savea will be explosive everywhere else, but it is a problem the All Blacks coaches will hope to correct in the Rugby Championship.
That is where number eight Juan Martin Gonzalez is particularly exceptional and will seek to put New Zealand under pressure. The athletic Gonzalez is also excellent around the field but his biggest impact, if Argentina are to be competitive, is probably going to be at the lineout. He forms a superb loose trio with Kremer and Matera, but their effectiveness will be limited unless Thomas Gallo and Eduardo Bello can hold their own in the scrum.
In the backline, Argentina are continuing with Santiago Carreras at fly-half, even if we’re not quite sure he will ever be a top class player in that position. Carreras hasn’t really proven that he can control these big games and this will be another test of his capabilities. If he can get them in the right areas then Santiago Chocobares and Mateo Carreras are genuine threats to opposition defences.
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Main head-to-head
We’ve already mentioned the Argentina loose trio where the battle at flanker will be significant. Los Pumas have a couple of the best operators around in Marcos Kremer and Pablo Matera, who bring an abrasiveness to all aspects of the game. Kremer has the occasional brain fade but he will provide physicality and will set the tone defensively, while Matera will compete heavily at the breakdown. Both are also good carriers at close quarters and will hope to get them over the gain line.
It is possibly the only position where Los Pumas have an edge over the All Blacks. That is not to dispute the quality of Dalton Papali’i and Ethan Blackadder, who are both very talented, but there are a few doubts over that combination. Blackadder has endured his injury issues over recent years while Papali’i was not at his best against England, so they will hope to step up on Saturday. The Crusaders man in particular, thanks to his intensity and physicality, is one of the best around when fit, but he will need to prove that over the next few weeks.
Prediction
Argentina won’t be able to hurt the All Blacks consistently enough to get close. There are still some obvious weaknesses in the New Zealand squad, which could be exposed by the Springboks in rounds three and four, but against Los Pumas, we just can’t see it. All Blacks by 25 points.
Previous results
2023: New Zealand won 44-6 in Paris
2023: New Zealand won 41-12 in Mendoza
2022: New Zealand won 53-3 in Hamilton
2022: Argentina won 25-18 in Christchurch
2021: New Zealand in 36-13 in Brisbane
2021: New Zealand won 39-0 in Gold Coast
2020: New Zealand won 38-0 in Newcastle
2020: Argentina won 25-15 in Sydney
2019: New Zealand won 20-16 in Buenos Aires
2018: New Zealand won 35-17 in Buenos Aires
The teams
New Zealand: 15 Beauden Barrett, 14 Sevu Reece, 13 Anton Lienert-Brown, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Mark Tele’a, 10 Damian McKenzie, 9 TJ Perenara, 8 Ardie Savea (c), 7 Dalton Papali’i, 6 Ethan Blackadder, 5 Sam Darry, 4 Tupou Vaa’i, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Ethan De Groot
Replacements: 16 Asafo Aumua, 17 Ofa Tu’ungafasi, 18 Fletcher Newell, 19 Josh Lord, 20 Wallace Sititi, 21 Cortez Ratima, 22 Rieko Ioane, 23 Will Jordan
Argentina: 15 Juan Cruz Mallia, 14 Matias Moroni, 13 Lucio Cinti, 12 Santiago Chocobares, 11 Mateo Carreras, 10 Santiago Carreras, 9 Gonzalo Bertranou, 8 Juan Martin Gonzalez, 7 Marcos Kremer, 6 Pablo Matera (c), 5 Pedro Rubiolo, 4 Franco Molina, 3 Eduardo Bello, 2 Ignacio Ruiz, 1 Thomas Gallo
Replacements: 16 Agustin Creevy, 17 Mayco Vivas, 18 Joel Sclavi, 19 Efrain Elias, 20 Tomas Lavanini, 21 Joaquin Oviedo, 22 Lautaro Bazan Velez, 23 Tomas Albornoz
Date: Saturday, August 10
Venue: Sky Stadium, Wellington
Kick-off: 19:05 local (08:05 BST, 07:05 GMT)
Referee: Angus Gardner (Australia)
Assistant Referees: Nic Berry (Australia), Andrea Piardi (Italy)
TMO: Brett Cronan (Australia)
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