Six Nations permutations: What France, England, Ireland and Scotland need in the final round to lift the title
France, Ireland, England and Scotland all stand a chance of being crowned Six Nations champions.
With one round to go in the Six Nations, we run through the permutations of the final weekend with France, Ireland, England and Scotland still in the running for the title.
While the first three of the aforementioned teams have a realistic chance of lifting the Six Nations trophy as champions, Scotland need a miracle, although they can still mathematically win the Championship.
Meanwhile, Italy and Wales are bringing up the rear on the table and are out of the running for honours.
The action gets underway on ‘Super Saturday’ with Italy hosting the defending champions Ireland in Rome, before Wales and England do battle in Cardiff and the Championship will come to a conclusion when France and Scotland face off in Paris.
There is still plenty at stake for all the teams in the final round of action and we will break down the permutations for you as the sides jostle for positions.
Before we get stuck into the permutations, let’s recap how the Six Nations table works and what are the deciding factors when two sides finish level in the standings.
Table, match points and bonus points
The team that wins a Six Nations Test shall be awarded four match points – five match points if they score four or more tries.
The losing side will be awarded no points unless they lose the match within a margin of seven points or less or score four tries – in the case that they score four tries and lose by seven points or less, they shall be awarded two match points.
In the case of a draw, each team will be awarded two match points with a further point added in the event that any of them scores four tries or more.
A team that wins all five of its matches (a Grand Slam) shall be awarded an additional three points after their final game.
Six Nations tiebreakers
If two teams are level on league points, the higher-ranked side will be decided as follows:
1. The teams will be placed according to the difference between the total points scored and the total points conceded – points difference.
2. If their points difference is the same, then they will be placed according to the number of tries (including penalty tries) scored in all matches.
3. If any that still does not separate the two teams, then they will be placed equally.
Six Nations table after four rounds
France favourites to lift the trophy
Les Bleus head into Round Five’s action sitting pretty atop the table and there are several scenarios for them to win the Six Nations, depending on the end result of their clash with Scotland and how England and Ireland fare in their respective encounters.
– France will be crowned champions if they clinch a bonus-point victory against Scotland as it will mean they finish with 21 points in the standings.
– Fabien Galthie’s side can still lift the title with a victory (but with no bonus point) if England either beats Wales without a bonus point, draws (with or without a bonus point), or suffers a defeat (with or without a bonus point), keeping France on 20 points.
– A draw with a bonus point against the Scots will still be enough for France to win the Championship if England and Ireland do not surpass them in points.
– If France lose but secure two bonus points, they can still win if England and Ireland both suffer losses without securing bonus points.
– If Les Bleus, England or Ireland finish level on points, their title chances depend on superior points difference, making every scoreline crucial.
England also in with a chance
England’s route to winning the title depends on how they perform against Wales and the result between France and Scotland.
– The Red Rose will win the Championship if they clinch a bonus point win over Wales and France either draw or lose against Scotland. That scenario would put England on 20 points.
– An England victory minus a bonus point and a French defeat will mean Steve Borthwick’s troops can win the Championship with 19 points.
– The Red Rose can still win the Six Nations if they draw with a bonus point or lose with two bonus points, provided Les Bleus and Ireland both suffer defeats.
– If England and France finish level on points, then England have to surpass France on points difference to finish at the top of the table.
Ireland still eyeing a three-peat
After lifting the trophy in 2023 and 2024, Ireland are chasing an unprecedented third successive Six Nations title.
– They will achieve that goal if they beat Italy with a bonus point and both France and England fail to secure victories.
– If the men from the Emerald Isle are victorious without a bonus point and both France and England suffer losses, Simon Easterby’s team can take the title with 18 points.
– If Ireland draw with a bonus point or lose with two bonus points, they can still be crowned champions if both Les Bleus and the Red Rose lose and they hold a superior points difference.
– Like France and England, Ireland’s chances of winning the Six Nations could come down to points difference if teams are level on match points at the end of the Championship.
Long odds for Scotland
Of the four teams in the hunt for the title, Scotland are the most unlikely to win it as they have the toughest task, but for them to lift the title, the following scenarios have to take place:
– Gregor Townsend’s charges have to defeat France with a bonus point and surpass them on points difference, provided France lose without securing a bonus point.
– Scotland will finish ahead of England on points difference, assuming England come off second best against Wales but earn a bonus point.
– The Scots move above Ireland on points difference if the men from the Emerald Isle draw or lose to the Azzurri while gathering two bonus points.
If things play out in that way, Scotland would finish on 16 points – along with France, England and Ireland – with the title decided by points difference.