Wales v Australia preview: Joe Schmidt’s Wallabies to add more ‘misery’ on ‘old foe’ Warren Gatland
Old foes Warren Gatland and Joe Schmidt go head-to-head this week
Wales and Australia have been familiar foes in the past year, and they meet yet again at the Principality this weekend in the Autumn Nations Series.?
The sides come into the game off the back of contrasting results. Wales were edged out by Fiji, while Australia claimed a historic victory over England.
Kiwi coaching duo, Warren Gatland and Joe Schmidt, weirdly cut similar figures post-match. The Welsh boss is seemingly accepting his fate as pressure surrounding his future mounts, to the point where he was laughing at questions about it.
Counterpart Schmidt also had a skip in his step after the England game after steering them to a dramatic win, and also after the gamble of starting Joseph Suaalii paid off.
The two teams have met very frequently in the last few years too, with seven matches between them since 2018, so they should be fairly familiar with one another now. They also went toe-to-toe over the summer, with Australia claiming two wins in the July series.?Both Gatland and Schmidt should therefore have plenty of tricks up their sleeves for this one, as they should have a great idea of how their opponents will play this time around.
With both teams likely to use this as a springboard for the future, it’s all to play for at the Principality this weekend…
Where the game will be won
This seems like a fairly basic answer, given it’s quite literally the point of the game, but whoever does the basics well will win. Australia and Wales have really stripped back their game plans in the past 12 months to focus on the core fundamentals, and it’s worked well to some extent.
Execution of the basics is exactly what defined the series between the sides in July. Wales were, on the whole, decent in both Tests, but the Wallabies forced them into errors and used that as a platform to build their attack on. Schmidt’s side almost play like his Ireland team back when he first took the reigns. They force teams into errors, then get gainline success with the pack before flinging it wide and scoring. It’s simple, but effective.
It’s a given at Test level, but the set-piece battle is certainly going to have a large say in the outcome of the game.
Last time they met
What they said
Following their tough defeat to Fiji last time out, Wales boss Gatland detailed his side had taken an ‘honest’ look back at the game and made some changes around it.
“We have had honest reviews after last week’s match,” Gatland said.
“There were some things we did well that we are looking to build on, but we need to be more accurate and disciplined especially in key moments.
He also added he’s expecting a confident Australia, following their 42-37 win over England last weekend.
“We’re expecting an Australia side on a high after their win against England. They are a much-improved side since the summer and have played a number of Test matches since we last met. We know we need to put in an 80-minute performance on Sunday.”
Wallabies counterpart Schmidt was also up for the fight this weekend and opened up on bringing in some heavyweight reinforcements.
“Last week’s Test was fast-paced and physical and we’ve brought in some freshness for what’s going to be another bruising encounter in Cardiff,” he said.
“As a group we’ve worked hard this week, knowing that there will be plenty of pressure on us this weekend.”
Schmidt also touched on the pressure facing old-foe Gatland, with speculation growing over his future as Wales coach.
“I’m sure Warren is feeling some pressure, just like any international coach, I think you’re all under pressure,” said Schmidt.
“I feel under more pressure than I was last week.”
“Last week, no one expected us to win. Suddenly, when expectations shift and you’re up against a team that are on a losing run, you’re expected to win.”
Players to watch
Wales have been hit with some crucial injuries this week, with both Mason Grady and Tomos Williams both ruled out of this crucial Test, but they still have some serious talent at their disposal.
Winger Blair Murray?looked electric at times last weekend and grabbed a deserved try for his efforts. If Wales want to go toe-to-toe with this fast, almost frantic, Wallabies attack they will need to get the ball into his hands as much as possible. Returning flanker Jac Morgan is also a fantastic selection from Gatland. He is a truly world-class player when he gets going, and showcased at the World Cup how pivotal he is in this Welsh team, with an all-court game to rival that of Justin Tipuric.
As mentioned earlier, Williams is out this weekend, but his replacement?Ellis Bevan should have a good impact on the game too. He was very busy last weekend in his brief cameo, noticing a solid try, but now back in his preferred position, he should have an even bigger say on things.
For the Wallabies, the monstrous frame of?Will Skelton will add so much power and physicality to their pack, which could be the key in stopping Wales’ maul. Putting him on the same side as Taniela Tupou is also a masterstroke, and will only propel their scrum to new heights. He is also a really classy operator around the park too, and will take things up a gear.
Fullback Tom Wright is the key to their attack and will look to have another stellar outing against Wales this weekend. His eye for a gap, alongside his silky running and pace, help Australia motor up the field in double-quick time, but it’s his ability to just create something from nothing is simply magical.
Finally,?Rob Valetini has a big job on his plate moving to eight, but he has been in fine touch this year in the Green and Gold and will once again be pivotal for his side. The back-rower has been so solid in the tight all year and consistently gets his side over the gainline with some powerful carries.
Main head-to-head
The battle in the back-row will, once again, decide the outcome of the game this weekend. Both teams are blessed with options in this department, but you feel whoever gets the most out of their charges will win the game.
James Botham has clearly been drafted in to add some beef to the Welsh back-row, but both Morgan and Aaron Wainwright are capable of some fantastic performances for their side.
On the flip side, Valetini and Fraser McReight are two of the form back-rowers in the world right now, and play such a crucial role in getting their side on the front-foot. Seru Uru is a new addition to this combination, so needs a big game.
The bench options are also talented too. Tommy Reffell and Langi Gleeson will need to add real impact upon their arrival and limit the work of the other too.
This head-to-head will certainly be a tasty one!
Prediction
Like their Tests in the summer, you would expect this will be a close contest. It’s a Test for both sides to see where they are in their development and also allows them to mark their progress over the past few months. The Principality should provide Wales with a much-needed boost, especially if the roof is closed, but unfortunately, it might not be enough to end their misery. Australia looked pretty solid against England last time out, much improved on where they were when they last faced Wales, so it could be a decent win for them this weekend.?Wallabies to win by 10.
Previous results
2024: Australia won 36-28 in Melbourne
2024: Australia won 25-16 in Sydney
2023: Wales won 40-6 in Lyon
2022: Australia won 39-34 in Cardiff
2021: Wales won 29-28 in Cardiff
2019: Wales won 29-25 in Tokyo
2018: Wales won 9-6 in Cardiff
The teams
Wales:?15 Cameron Winnett, 14 Tom Rogers, 13 Max Llewellyn, 12 Ben Thomas, 11 Blair Murray, 10 Gareth Anscombe, 9 Ellis Bevan, 8 Aaron Wainwright, 7 Jac Morgan, 6 James Botham, 5 Adam Beard, 4 Will Rowlands, 3 Archie Griffin, 2 Dewi Lake (c) 1 Gareth Thomas
Replacements:?16 Ryan Elias, 17 Nicky Smith, 18 Keiron Assiratti, 19 Christ Tshiunza, 20 Tommy Reffell, 21 Rhodri Williams, 22 Sam Costelow, 23 Eddie James
Australia:?15? ?Tom Wright, 14? ?Andrew Kellaway, 13? ? Len Ikitau, 12? ? Samu Kerevi, 11? Max Jorgensen, 10? ?Noah Lolesio, 9? ?Nic White, 8 Rob Valetini, 7? ?Fraser McReight, 6? ?Seru Uru, 5? ?Will Skelton, 4? ?Nick Frost, 3? ?Allan Alaalatoa (c), 2? ?Matt Faessler, 1? ?Angus Bell
Replacements:?16???Brandon Paenga-Amosa, 17???James Slipper, 18???Zane Nonggorr, 19???Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, 20???Langi Gleeson, 21???Tate McDermott, 22???Ben Donaldson, 23? Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii
Date:?Sunday, November 17
Venue:?Principality Stadium, Cardiff
Kick-off:?16:10 GMT (03:10 AEDT)
Referee:?James Doleman (New Zealand)
Assistant Referees:?Karl Dickson (England), Angus Mabey (New Zealand)
TMO:?Marius van der Westhuizen (South Africa)
